The 1943 Bengal Famine of India is unforgettable, for it claimed four million lives. Nobel Laureate and well-known economist Amartya Sen argued that the famine was caused by the shortage rumors that resulted in hoarding and rapid price inflation leading to a disaster.
Similarly, in 1989, China witnessed deadly protests in Tiananmen Square, the result of political unrest exacerbated by the high food prices (National Geographic 2008).
But in 21st century, when mechanisms are dynamically inter-twined, the food crisis can change the very course of economic history.
The 2007-08 food crisis sparked riots from Haiti to Bangladesh to Egypt. The skyrocketing food prices took the world by storm for it occurred in a year when the global farmers' reaped a record grain crop
Now in 2010, the crisis stands to repeat itself once again with greater intensity. Russia faces severe drought and wildfires throughout the region, especially, where wheat is grown. On the other hand, Pakistan's devastating floods have damaged 600,000 tonne of wheat, an estimate that could be higher as agricultural lands have been wiped off.
The dynamics of the food crisis is analysed through examination of the agriculture sector and the factors that continue to make their presence both within the sector and the global markets.
Agriculture and The Malthusian Theory
Agriculture is a high risk and the most neglected sector of the economy. The sector is highly dependent on productivity of both the workers and land and is subject to diminishing returns. According to Joachim von Braun - the Director General of the International Food Policy Research - 'the agricultural productivity is only one to two percent a year which is too low to meet the population growth and increased demand'.
This particular link between population growth and food was observed by Thomas Robert Malthus in 1798. In the "Malthusian theory', Malthus contended that human population grows at a geometric rate while agricultural production grows at arithimetic rate (much slowly than human population). By this rate, the human population would double every 25 years and if remain unchecked, will outstrip the agricultural production. Thus, famines and rising deaths would be the result.
Malthus suggested two kinds of checks to restrict population. Firstly, there were 'positive' checks which referred to the natural disasters, epidemics, famines and wars as ways that keep population growth in check. Secondly, there were 'preventive' checks which were to use primary measures of restraints such as delaying the age of marriage and controlling the birth rates.
But the theory was criticized on various grounds. Firstly, Malthus could not live to witness the enormous impact of technological progress that came in the form of Industrial Revolution in Britain changing the standards of living dramatically. The modern economic growth's distinguishing feature is the increasing returns to scale which the model did not assume.
Secondly, the theory assumed that national per capita income and population growth were directly related but research shows no clear correlation between the two.
Most importantly, the Green Revolution dramatically changed the scenario. American plant breeder and Nobel prize winner Norman Borlaug worked with Indian researchers and brought high-yield wheat varieties to India. The varieties rapidly spread out in Asia 'changing the traditional farming practices of millions of farmers' and soon 'miracle' rice varieties followed.
With such advances, the food crisis should have been the thing of the past. But it isn't.
Termed as a 'silent tsunami' by the head of the World Food Program, the crisis persists with greater intensity to this day.
The Factors Behind The Food Crisis
When the food crisis of 2207-08 emerged, Joachim von Braun stated at the time that 'the crisis has not passed and that only some of the elements and causes have changed....Hunger will increase further'.
The Green Revolution indeed brought higher yields of wheat and rice. But the blessings soon turned into a curse.
Over-irrigation in Punjab, India has led to 'steep drop in the water tables and the productive lands lost to salinization and water logged soils'.. Worse, the overuse of pesticides and fertilizers contaminated the water to such an extent that pesticides are found in the Punjabi farmer's blood, their water table, their vegetables, even in their wives' breast milk .. Today, cancer rules several Punjabi villages of India.
The 'abuse' of Green Revolution stripped the soil of its nutrients. In addition to this, farmers became heavily in debt as the prices of seeds, pesticides and fertilizers soared. With low government support, many have left for the urban centers in search of employment to pay off the debt. Thus, few farmers now farm their lands, particularly, in developing countries.
With global population rising, demand is clearly outstripping supply putting a pressure on prices to increase.
But now an additional factor is the climate change. New climate studies reveal that extreme heat waves are likely to become common in the tropics and the sub-tropics.
2010 has witnessed extreme weather patterns. For the first time, temperatures soared to record highs in the Middle East leading to power outages in several countries. The erratic climate behavior could further contribute in reducing agricultural output and fueling prices.
The volatility in the food markets is also attributed to the commodities becoming an 'asset class' for investment' and needs to be controlled.
These factors are heavily contributing in creating a food crisis for the global world. If the crisis and the underlying reasons remain ignored, then perhaps the world might witness another great famine with a greater tragedy than the Bengal Famine.
Sources:
Biello, David (2008) "Has the Food Crisis Abated? a Q&A with Joachim von Braun , Director General of the International Food Policy Research' Scientific American, Accessed on 15 Aug 2010
Blas, Javier (2010) 'Rise in wheat prices fastest since 1973' Financial Times, accessed on 19 Aug 2010
Bourne, Joel K (2008) "The Global Food Crisis: The End of Plenty' National Geographic, Accessed on 16 Aug 2010
Braun, Joachim von (2010) "Times to regulate volatile food markets' Financial Times, Accessed on 20 Aug 2010
Gulf Times (2008) 'Costlier Food unleashes a Tsunami: UN' accessed on 16 Aug 2010
Gulf Times (2008) 'Vietnam aims to clam panic buying binge' accessed on 21 Aug 2010
Hecht, David (2009) "Little Keeps Nigeria from a Crisis of Hunger' Washington Post, accessed on 17 Aug 2010
Stratfor (2010) " The Global Food Crisis, Drought, Fire and Grain in Russia ' accessed on 16 Aug 2010
Todaro, Micheal P, Smith, Stephen C "Chap 10 Agricultural Transformation and Rural Development' in the book Economic Development, Eighth Edition, Addison-Wesley, Accessed on 22 Aug 2010
Article (2009) " Food Crisis May Repeat, Warn Leaders in Global Hunger Fight' World Bank, accessed on 15 Aug 2010
Samreen Khan - Samreen M. Khan, an expat born and raised in the small Gulf State of Qatar, began her writing journey with a blog. She pursued a degree in ...
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